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Canada Welcomes Mark Carney as New PM, But for How Long?
Mark Carney was officially sworn in as the 24th prime minister of Canada on Friday, in a ceremony presided over by Governor General Mary Simon. The new prime minister assumes office at a time of great uncertainty for the country, which faces a fundamentally changed political landscape due to increased tensions with the United States. He also faces an imminent election, which may decide his political future as early as next month.
Carney, a former central banker who has never held any elected office, won a landslide victory in the Liberal Party leadership elections earlier this month, convened to choose a successor to outgoing PM and party leader Justin Trudeau. Carney garnered nearly 86% of the vote, easily defeating second-place candidate Chrystia Freeland.
Carney’s sudden rise to power may surprise many outside of political circles. Born in the Northwest Territories, he is the first prime minister from any of Canada’s territories. He completed his undergraduate education at Harvard, and holds an MPhil and PhD in economics from Oxford.
Carney has extensive experience in banking and finance. He served as 8th governor of the Bank of Canada and 120th governor of the Bank of England, in addition to 13 years in the private sector at Goldman Sachs. Carney’s term at the Bank of Canada coincided with the 2008 global financial crisis, and his leadership was praised for helping Canada avoid the worst of that recession.
Carney’s rise may have been helped by his status as a relative outsider in Ottawa, without strong ties to the unpopular prime minister Trudeau. However, it is not unprecedented in Canadian history. While most of Canada’s prime ministers held seats in the House of Commons at the time of their election, this is only by custom, not law. While rare in the modern era, five previous prime ministers have held the position without being MP’s (two being senators, and three holding no elected seat.) All of them, however, led short-lived governments lasting less than two years. The most recent example was fellow Liberal Party member John Turner, whose replaced Pierre-Elliot Trudeau in 1984; his government lasted only 79 days.
It remains to be seen whether Carney will be able to break this pattern. While he is required to call an election by October of this year, current trends suggest it may be in his favor to call one as early as possible. At the beginning of this year, the Liberals seemed destined for electoral annihilation, bottoming out at 16% of voters in one Angus Reid poll. But today, the party has experienced a dramatic reversal of fortune, and recent polls suggest Carney now enjoys the possibility of a Liberal majority government.
Two key factors were critical in reviving the party’s chances. The first is Justin Trudeau’s retreat from the political scene. The former PM’s personal unpopularity (reaching as low as 22% approval in recent polls) was a millstone around the neck of his party, and an easy target for his Conservative opponents, who blamed most of Canada’s current problems on Trudeau’s mismanagement. Carney himself has been unafraid to distance himself from Trudeau. His first action as PM was to eliminate Trudeau’s unpopular consumer carbon tax, one of the Conservatives’ key electoral targets.
The second factor is the dramatic increase in tensions with the United States under the Trump administration, which has overtaken all other issues in Canadian politics. Due to Trump’s tariffs and his rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state, relations between the two countries have reached an unprecedented low and Canadian patriotism is in a marked upswing. Trump’s apparent hostility to Canada has been especially damaging to the Conservative Party, key leaders of which have previously expressed admiration for the president and his incoming administration.
The new prime minister has himself taken a firm line against Trump’s actions. He has emphatically denied that Canada will ever be part of the United States. Carney’s experience in banking is perceived as an asset in a potential trade war. He has emphasized the importance of diversifying Canada’s economy, which is heavily dependent on US exports. Carney’s first official foreign trip was to Europe, where he met with his British counterpart Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron. The visit made a statement that Canada is seeking alternative trade and security commitments from European allies, now that it is unable to rely on the United States. |
Royal Canadian Legion, US Branch #25 